Polling data…

One ought to be careful about polling data. Campaigns have their own “internal” polling which is much more accurate than what we are “allowed” to see. Folks with access to that “internal” data say that the race is much closer than we are allowed to think. This is verified by the way the campaigns act. If the data we are force fed is accurate, McCain is really just wasting money and Obama shouldn’t be on the attack. But McCain is still fighting and Obama is not playing a defensive strategy that is designed to “run out the clock.” The Obama campaign knows that the numbers are much closer than the public sees. This is why he is urging his supporters to remember what happened in New Hampshire, when on the day of the primary, polling had him up by 10% points and he lost. It is also why he has gone on the attack about “Joe the Plumber.” He gave the worst answer he could have there, but if it was in the bag, as the media/Obama surrogates have told us, then why trash the guy and dig up so much about him, so that we can now safely say that we know more about Joe than we do Barak Obama?
The point is this: let’s wait to see what the numbers look like from Zogby the day of the election. Zogby has nailed it in the tight races like no one else has over the last 12-16 years, at least since I have been really paying attention starting in 92, though I didn’t hear about Zogby until I believe 96. Check out his site as the day nears. If he has an Obama win, then chances are that Obama will win… but if it is in the margin of error or they are tied, then there is a good chance for McCain, and if he has McCain ahead then it is in the bag for McCain.

More about elections, polling, Obama, abortion and FOCA next time when I issue the second installment of “Abortion and the Obama Factor.”

Pax